Sprague Word

The future and more from Richard Sprague

Italy, with 60 post-war regime changes, is more stable than Syria

Posted by sprague on April 16, 2011

Nassim Taleb in an excellent @knowledgwharton podcast:

comparing Italy with Saudi Arabia. Italy is an example of mild randomness in comparison with Saudi Arabia and Syria, which are examples of wild randomness. Italy has had 60 changes in regime in the post-war era, but they are inconsequential…. It is a prime example of noise. It’s very Italian and so it’s elegant noise, but it’s noise nonetheless. In contrast, Saudi Arabia and Syria have had the same regime in place for 40 some years. You may think it is stability, but it’s not. Once you remove the lid, the thing explodes.

Worth listening to the whole 30 minutes. He also says the “jobless recovery” is no recovery at all — it’s a recession temporarily masked by terrible economic policies that will make it long-term worse.

Italy, with 60 post-war regime changes, is more stable than Syria

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